Green energy supply: source or invest?

A growing number of companies adopts renewable energy goals and commits to green energy supply. Top of the bill might be Ikea, that has committed to produce as much renewable electricity as it consumes in its industrial sites, storage sites and shops by 2020. Apple is approaching the 100% renewable electricity supply rapidly, and was already at 93% in 2015. And here’s just a handful of famous company names that have committed to the symbolic 100% renewable electricity supply by 2020 target:

Swiss RE, Bank of America, BMW, British Telecom, Coca Cola, Goldman Sachs, ING, La Poste, Phillips Lighting, Sky Entertainment, UBS, Unilever

(These names and much more information on corporate renewable energy efforts can be found on the RE100 website.)

With a climate change denying Trump administration in the US, one could easily be pessimistic about the prospects of greening the world’s energy supply. However, I believe that the renewable energy revolution is a train that is rolling and can’t be stopped in its tracks:

1. A large part of the public is convinced that climate change is a real problem. Companies feel a pressure to present green energy credentials to clients, current and future employees, investors, or they just go green because of an inborn sense of social responsibility.

2. The costs of building renewable energy generation has dropped spectacularly. Energy from windmills now costs between 52 and 110 euro per MWh, according to Wind Europe. That is 48 to 102 dollars at the current exchange rate. Electricity from photovoltaics looks even more spectacular. According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, a project in Dubai that was commissioned in May 2016 will produce power from the sun for a cost as low as 30 dollar per MWh.

In many places in the world, the all-in cost of consuming electricity from the grid is higher, making it profitable to generate on-site green electricity rather than buying from the grid.

For feeding the green electricity into the grid, the 110 euro per MWh needed for some windmill projects, might still be too high for the investment to make business sense. Subsidies and governments willing to grant them to windmills and solar panels might still be needed for the time being. But then the energy industry has always been subsidized. The UK will pay EdF 92,50 pound sterling per MWh for building a nuclear power plant at Hinkley Point, that’s a 107,54 euro per MWh. Isn’t that money more wisely spend on windmills?

Renewable energy is also playing a crucial role in bringing electricity to poor countries. Access to green electricity in remote regions, isolated from reliable grids, can be crucial for those regions’ development. The recent acceleration of growth of renewables in developing countries is likely to continue.

If Donald Trump thinks that his skeptic approach to greening energy supply is part of his businessman’s attitude to the presidency, then he is mistaken. A 21^st century businessman integrates green energy supply goals in his corporate strategy, because they make business sense. As an energy buyer, the chances that you will be asked to buy green energy are increasing and they will continue to do so, whether Mr. Trump is in the White House or not.

Getting that question on greening the energy supply confronts the energy buyer with an important dilemma:

Will you go green by sourcing green electricity from the grid or by investing in your own green electricity production? To give an answer to this question, we have to make some considerations:

1. The physics and logistics of electricity supply make it difficult to label

Many years ago, we researched the green energy options of a client of ours. One of their team members kept insisting that he wanted proof that the green electricity was coming from a particular windmill near their factory. Due to the physics of electricity it’s impossible to do this. You cannot produce MWh’s in your windmill and attach a label to them saying: “Electricity from windmill so-and-so, to be delivered to company so-and-so”.

Electricity supply works by keeping the tension on the grid at a constant level by injecting as much electricity into the grid as the end-consumers are collectively consuming. But there is nothing that is physically being moved from place A to B. Therefore, it is impossible to say where the MWh’s that you consume were produced.

To deal with this, systems such as the European ‘certificates of origin’, have introduced a double marketing system. Producers of green electricity in Europe receive a certificate of origin. This is a piece of paper that says that a MWh of electricity was produced by a windmill, solar panel, by hydro, geothermal, biomass, etc.

The green electricity producer will sell electricity twice. The product itself (often called the “grey electricity”) goes to the grid at market prices. Next to that, the producer will make some extra income by selling the certificates of origin in a separate market.

Energy suppliers buy these certificates and bundle them with the physical MWh’s that they supply in green electricity products. That doesn’t mean that the power you consume comes from a particular windmill or solar panel. It means that as a consumer you have made an extra investment to support renewable energy. Some consumers have taken the labeling logic a step further by buying certificates of origin themselves in quantities equal to their physical consumption.

2. Green comes in many shades

More than 20 years ago, I read a book of which I vaguely remembered the title to be “Grass instead of atoms”. It envisioned a future in which all of the world’s energy would be supplied by biomass. The theory was that biomass is carbon-neutral, as the carbon dioxide produced by burning the plant material would be compensated by the CO2 sucked from the air by the growing plants. Green activists embraced the biomass idea heartily.

Twenty years later, the world and definitely the green movement has grown much less enthusiast about biomass:

1. Due to its low calorific content, you need a lot of plant material to produce a reasonable amount of energy. This causes huge logistic problems.
2. Not the least of it being the huge amounts of land that you need to produce sufficient biomass for supplying the world with energy. Land that in many cases could be used better to grow food. And land that was sometimes won by cutting down valuable, bio-diverse and more carbon-sucking rain forest. Next to that there are the environmental issues caused by monoculture. Very rapidly, we discovered that the world would not be better off if the whole equatorial zone was transformed into a massive palm oil plantation.
3. The theory of the carbon-neutrality of biomass can be challenged, especially if you cut rain-forest to plant palm oil and when you ship your biomass halfway across the globe.

Many well-intentioned biomass projects have ended in a public relations nightmare due to the questionable environmental credits of burning plant material. To investors’ horror the environmental groups that push for more green energy are often the first ones to raise protest against specific projects. Think about the many times local green activists have raised protests against the construction of a windmill.

The certificates of origin are granted to any green electricity project, regardless of its real environmental merits. If you consider going ‘deep green’, you might make some extra investments by buying some higher quality certificates.

3. Buying green electricity is very cheap

In Europe, you can currently buy certificates of origin. That is very cheap. The reason for this low price is simple: demand is lower than supply. Every MWh of green electricity produced in Europe gets a certificate. At this moment, 29% of all electricity produced in Europe is green (2015 data coming from Agora Energiewende). As long as all the citizens, companies, public authorities, etc. that buy green electricity consume collectively less than 29% of all electricity consumed in Europe, the demand for green electricity will be lower than the supply. Hence the low price of buying green electricity.

If your only interest in buying green electricity is “green-washing”, getting the paper on the wall to say that you buy green so that you can satisfy the customers that are asking for it, the low price of green electricity is good news. However, many customers have a more genuine interest, more serious intentions of making a valuable contribution to the environment. For them, just spending a few ten thousands of euros or dollars on certificate-buying will not be very satisfying.

Moreover, a public relations catastrophe is looming again. Environmentalists are increasingly aware of how easy and cheap it is to claim ‘100% renewable electricity’ by buying certificates of origin. Clients that involve NGO’s in their sustainability policy (e.g. through the WWF Climate Savers initiative), already feel that pressure to do something more valuable than buying 15 cent per MWh certificates of origin.

4. Not all green electricity is good for the environment

Certificates of origin don’t work as a tool for putting pressure on energy companies to increase their green electricity production. But it works as a system for having companies with green intentions invest money in greenery. Unfortunately, that money isn’t always effective.

An effective investment in green electricity means that less carbon dioxide is emitted. Very often, the money you pay for certificates of origin goes to an old hydro power station or a windmill, solar panel or biomass power station that have been there already for many years. For hydro, wind and solar, the marginal cost of production is 0, meaning that their owners produce the electricity whenever they can. Bringing us to the startling conclusion:

Whether you pay for the certificate of origin or not, the green electricity would have been produced anyhow.

So, your effort to pay extra for the certificates of origin isn’t keeping a gram of carbon dioxide out of the air. You could solve this by buying higher quality certificates. However, if you invest every euro you spend to source green electricity in your own renewable energy production, you are effectively keeping CO2 out of the air. It will mean that a windmill, solar panel or other project gets built thanks to your efforts that pushes fossil-fuel fired MWh’s from the grid. As the investment costs to produce your own energy are so much larger than what you spend buying certificates, it might be financially impossible to achieve the symbolic 100% renewable goal. But the money is spent so much more wisely and with a net better effect on the environment.

5. Sourcing means spending money without return, contrary to investing

Which brings us to a next observation. Spending money on certificates is just that, spending. Investing money means that you can expect a return on your euros or dollars. On-site renewable energy production is often developed by a third party with a power purchase agreement. In many cases you will receive a fixed amount of money for renting your terrain or rooftop. Next to that, you can buy the electricity at a price far below the price at which you buy from the grid. Such projects always lead to savings, and thanks to such third party arrangements without even having to invest the company’s money.

When you invest in off-site renewable energy projects, the return will depend on the particular set-up, and often on the subsidy arrangement. In many cases, renewable energy is an interesting investment as the return is relatively stable and reliable.

6. What do you want to achieve with your green energy efforts?

As you can read from the observations above, greening your energy takes more reflection than just buying a green power product based on certificates of origin. Investing the money in your own green electricity production is a more valuable approach, both for the environment and for your financial bottom line. However, not every company might be ready to have such large amounts of cash flowing to green power investments.

As an energy buyer, your research of the energy markets can lead to more valuable choices for your company. To determine your approach, it is worthwhile to make a good preliminary analysis of what you want to achieve with your green energy efforts, e.g. through a stakeholder analysis. If you’re just greening to satisfy customers, you might be happy with the certificates of origin. If you also want to prove your green credentials to environmentalists, you might decide to go deeper.

Sytuacja na światowym rynku węgla

By Ondrej Zicha – English version

W 2016 nastąpiła znacząca zmiana trendu w poziomie cen węgla. Po latach systematycznych spadków ceny węgla odbiły się w marcu tego roku, aby ustabilizować się na poziomie 60 dolarów za tonę (indeks API2, lipiec 2016). Ceny na takim poziomie widzieliśmy ostatnio ponad rok temu.

Źródło: opracowanie własne

Ceny węgla spadły o 70% od 2011 roku. Węgiel dostał łatkę ‘brudnego’ paliwa i zgodnie z popularną polityką dekarbonizacji został wyparty przez inne źródła energii. W sytuacji, gdy popyt spadał szybciej niż podaż, ceny systematycznie szybowały w dół do poziomu poniżej 40 dolarów za tonę w lutym i marcu br., dochodząc do progu rentowności wydobycia. Cały sektor dopadł poważny kryzys, gorącego okresu nie przetrwało kilka dużych firm m.in. amerykański Peabody Energy.

Co jednak przyczyniło się do odwrócenia trendu i wzrostu cen od marca tego Roku?

Chiny siłą napędową światowych cen węgla

Główną przyczyną odwrócenia trendu są zmiany w polityce gospodarczej Chin, które odpowiadają za ok. 50% światowej produkcji i zużycia węgla. W lutym br Chińczycy zapowiedzieli zamknięcie ponad 1000 kopalni do końca roku. Do likwidacji wyznaczono głównie małe kopalnie, które nie zapewniały odpowiednich warunków pracy. Dodatkowo w kwietniu ograniczono czas pracy w lokalnych zakładach o 16%.

Ograniczenie produkcji węgla powinno iść w parze ze zmniejszeniem zużycia surowca, ze względu na ekstremalnie wysokie zanieczyszczenie powietrza. Jednakże przestawienie się na inne bardziej ekologiczne paliwa to powolny i żmudny proces. Chiny mocno angażują się w rozwój odnawialnych źródeł energii, jednak chińska sieć przesyłowa wymaga dalszych inwestycji, żeby poradzić sobie z transportem niestabilnej energii odnawialnej.

Należy również ostrożnie podchodzić do tego co Chiny mówią i obiecują. Z jednej strony rząd zapowiada ograniczenie wydobycia paliw kopalnianych, z drugiej Greenpeace informuje o budowie kolejnej kopalni o mocy 400 GW, podczas gdy plan redukcji zakłada tylko 70 GW.

W krótkim okresie Chiny będą musiały importować więcej węgla (rokroczny wzrost w sierpniu wyniósł 52%), co z pewnością ucieszy wydobywców na całym świecie i ustabilizuje ceny węgla z powrotem na poziomie opłacalności.

Węgiel a sprawa polska

Rosnące ceny węgla to dobra informacja dla Polski, gdzie rodzimi producenci walczą o przetrwanie. W ramach ratowania sektora górniczego Kompania Węglowa, największy producent w UE, została przekształcona w Polską Grupę Górniczą. Wyższe ceny pomogą PGG w podtrzymaniu rentowności.

Z drugiej strony, nową spółkę dalej czekają problemy które obniżają jej konkurencyjność. Przede wszystkim, benchmarkem dla węgla wytwarzanego przez PGG jest polski indeks PSCMI1 (a nie API2 jak w przypadku rynków światowych). I jak możemy zobaczyć na poniższym wykresie, ceny węgla w Polsce jeszcze się nie odbiły, i od czerwca są one poniżej indeksu API2.

Źródło: opracowanie własne

Kolejnym problemem są zbyt wysokie koszty wydobycia. Silna pozycja związków zawodowych nie pozwala kopalniom na redukcję szerokiego pakietu benefitów pracowniczych. Do uzyskania długoterminowej rentowności potrzebne będą bardziej radykalne zmiany niż czasowa likwidacja tzw. czternastek.

Perspektywy na przyszłość

Ograniczenia wydobycia węgla w Chinach doprowadziły do usztywnienia podaży w niektórych regionach co skłoniło rząd w Pekinie do rozluźnienia regulacji. W przypadku niewystarczającej podaży węgla lokalne kopalnie mają pozwolenie na zwiększenie produkcji. Jest jeszcze za wcześnie, aby stwierdzić czy ogólny trend cenowy znów odbije w dół po tej decyzji, jednocześnie mała korekta była widoczna w ostatnich dniach.

Nie ulega wątpliwości, że Chiny są główną siłą napędowa światowych cen węgla i jedną decyzją polityczna potrafią zmienić sytuację na rynku globalnym.

What is moving the coal market?

By Ondrej Zicha – Polish version

2016 could be a year marked by the trend reversal of world coal prices. After years of steady decline, coal prices rebounded in March. In October, API2-prices event hit the level of 65 dollar per tonne, a level last seen one and a half years ago.

Source: Own study

Since 2011, coal prices lost more than 70%. Coal was marked as a “dirty” fuel and in line with the wide spread policy of decarbonisation, other energy sources were preferred. This made demand decrease faster than supply, so prices continuously went down to reach levels below 40 dollars per tonne in February and March this year. These prices made it difficult for miners to be profitable, endangered the entire sector and even caused bankruptcy of some big players like Peabody.

China drives world coal prices

Changes of the Chinese policy are the main reason for the price rebound. China takes about 50% of both worldwide production and consumption. In February, Chinese officials announced the country will close more than 1000 coal mines before the end of year. The mines on the list were mostly rather small ones and had to be closed because of inadequate working conditions. In April, this decision was followed by another one limiting the number of working days in local mines by 16%.

Limiting the coal production should go hand in hand with decreasing coal consumption, as China is pushed to do so because of extremely high air pollution. However, changing to other more ecologically friendly fuels will take some time while mines will already be closed at the end of this year. China is now investing a lot in renewable sources but these investments need some time to be realised. Additionally, some analysts remark that the current grid system is not prepared for more and potentially unstable renewable sources and therefore requires further investments.

On top, we should take into account that China has proven its statements to not always be 100% correct. China claims it’s abandoning fossil fuels, but according to Greenpeace’s report published in July, the country is currently building another 400 GW of installed coal capacity while the shutdown is only 70 GW.

This means China mainly needs to import more coal in the short term (year-on-year increase in August was 52%), which brought coal prices back at profitable levels and is good news for coal miners all around the world.

Situation in Poland

The rising coal prices are great news for Polish miners as they are struggling with serious problems. Kompania Węglowa, the biggest coal producer in the EU was restructured to Polska Grupa Górnicza (PGG) in order to save the Polish coal sector from bankruptcy. The higher coal prices could help the company to stay alive in a tough market.

On the other hand, the new company is still facing many difficulties which decreases its competitiveness. First of all, the benchmark price index for coal mined by PGG unfortunately is the Polish Coal Index PSCMI1 (not the API2 like on other European markets). However, the Polish index usually follows the European benchmark but this hasn’t happened (yet). As we can see on the graph below, the polish coal prices are even below the API2 index since June.

Additionally, PGG is still struggling with too high mining costs. The unions have a very strong position in the Polish coal sector and generally are not willing to reduce the non-standard benefits of workers in the mining sector. Despite some positive changes in the last months like a temporary suspension of 14^th month salaries, further and more radical changes are necessary to make PGG fully competitive.

Outlook for the future

Mining restrictions in China led to tight supply in certain regions. As a consequence, the Chinese government last month decided to ease the mining restrictions. In case of problems with supply, local mines would be allowed to increase production to meet demand. On top, the limited working days in the most efficient Chinese mines could be eased as well. However, this was not confirmed by the Chinese officials and for the time being, the market isn’t taking this into consideration.

Seeing the above, we can only be sure about one thing – China is the main driver of coal prices at this moment and any political decision there can impact the market situation.

Will the Polish capacity market stimulate new investments?

Read the Polish blog here. Written by Wojciech Nowotnik.

The last couple of weeks there’s been a debate on whether a capacity market needs to be created in Poland. At the beginning of July, the Ministry of Energy published a few suggestions to implement this capacity market. The main question is whether the capacity market as it’s outlined by the Ministry of Energy will stimulate new investments in stable production capacity to increase the energy security in Poland.

Let’s start with a brief recap. Support for investments in conventional power plants in Poland is nothing new. Do you remember how in the early nineties the Polish energy was in need of intensive modernization to reduce greenhouse gas emissions? A relatively simple mechanism was introduced: the long-term contract, called KDT (Kontrakt DługoTerminowy – Long Term Contract). This kind of support was simple and beneficial for the investor. After Poland entered the European Union, the KDT had to be changed because it was seen as unlawful state aid. The KDT became a transition fee as of 2008, a part of the distribution costs.

In August last year, the so-called power stages were introduced to significantly relieve the power system in Poland. This revived the discussion on the promotion of investment in conventional generation sources.

As you can see on the image above, the available capacity and demand are almost at the same level. This is a clear sign that similar problems might occur in the future. Therefore, other solutions need to be introduced in order to have a more stable national power system. Some other European countries are in a similar situation but the risk of supply constraints isn’t that significant as it is in Poland at the moment.

This is exactly why the Ministry of Energy worked on functional solutions for a capacity market in cooperation with experts from PSE SA. The document says they want to ensure the continuity and stability of electricity supplies to all end-users in the country on a long term. The project is largely based on the concept of the capacity market in the UK.

The proposed system assigns one party that is obliged to determine the size of the power demand and needs to organize the purchase of this amount of power based on . The asking price will be gradually lowered and the winner will be the one who offers the lowest rate.

Below you can find the schedule of processes on the capacity market.

Source: Ministry of Energy

Unfortunately, the example of Great Britain shows us that this solution does not guarantee investment in new blocks. According to the blog of Professor Świrski only 5% of the funds will be invested in new gas-fired units and the vast majority will support the old coal-fired plants to continue to be maintained.

In my opinion, it’s a pity that the solutions were only based on the national system without having a look at the opportunities of cross-border trading. As well, solutions providing Demand Side Response are only marginally treated. I also share the opinion of different commentators that point out that the capacity market as currently proposed might be considered as unlawful state aid. My last and most important remark concerns the cost for introducing the capacity market. ClientEarth’s analysis says that the capacity market based on the current proposal would mean an additional cost of 80 to 90 billion polish zloty (20 to 22 billion euro) between 2021 and 2030. The average energy bill would increase by 30%. The project only shows settlement mechanisms without providing any cost simulations. It seems like the Ministry of energy tries to solve the problems of the Polish energy sector by duplicating the mistakes of other EU countries.

In 2014 Benedict De Meulemeester, founder and owner of E&C Consultants, published an article about the capacity market: Capacity payments: expensive solution for a non-existing problem. At the end of the blog article, a more fair, cost-efficient way without unnecessary increases of energy prices for consumers is proposed:

1. Continue the climate policy measures aimed at reducing consumption.
2. Expand cross-border capacities and stimulate cross-border trading initiatives such as market coupling.
3. Continue to support renewable energy, especially now that its investment costs have dropped.
4. Support demand side management where it is realistic.

If you analyse both the project above and other legislation on the energy market in Poland (such as the law on the construction of wind farms) it seems like the actions of Minister Tchórzewski are exclusively focussed on supporting the Polish coal industry.

Prior to signing the “Windmills Act”, the Energy Minister said “there is a need for less of this renewable demagogy”. I would say there’s a need of less of this coal and bureaucratic demagogy.

 

 

Czy Polska potrzebuje rynku mocy?

Written by Wojciech Nowotnik. The English version will be published later today.

W ostatnich tygodniach toczy się dyskusja nt. konieczności utworzenia rynku mocy w Polsce.

Ministerstwo Energii zgodnie z wcześniejszymi zapowiedziami opublikowało na początku lipca Projekt Rozwiązań Funkcjonalnych Rynku Mocy.

Czy wprowadzenie rynku mocy w kształcie zarysowanym przez Ministerstwo Energii faktycznie sprawi, iż pojawią się nowe inwestycje w stabilne moce wytwórcze zwiększające bezpieczeństwo energetyczne w Polsce?

Zacznijmy jednak od krótkiej genezy. Wsparcie dla inwestycji w konwencjonalne elektrownie nie jest w Polsce niczym nowym. Wielu z nas pamięta jak na początku lat 90-tych polska energetyka wymagała dużych nakładów modernizacyjnych zmierzających do ograniczenia emisji szkodliwych gazów. Wprowadzono wówczas stosunkowo prosty mechanizm tzw. Kontraktu Długoterminowego potocznie nazywanego KDT. Taka forma wsparcia była przede wszystkim prosta i korzystna dla inwestora. Polska musiała jednak po wejściu do Unii Europejskiej rozwiązać KDT-y, gdyż stanowiły one niedozwoloną pomoc publiczną. Ich pozostałością od 2008 roku jest opłata przejściowa umiejscowiona w kosztach dystrybucji energii elektrycznej.

Dlaczego dyskusja nt. wspierania inwestycji w konwencjonalne źródła wytwarzania odżyła?

Wielu z nas z pewnością pamięta sierpień zeszłego roku, kiedy to po raz pierwszy od kilkudziesięciu lat wprowadzono w Polsce stopnie zasilania, które miały na celu znaczne odciążenie systemu elektroenergetycznego w Polsce.

 

Źródło : Opracowanie własne na podstawie danych z PSE

Jak widzimy na powyższym wykresie moc dyspozycyjna względem zapotrzebowania niemal się pokrywa. Jest to istotna przesłanka do występowania podobnych problemów w kolejnych latach.

Nieuchronne jest wprowadzenie rozwiązań, które doprowadzą do zwiększenia stabilności w krajowym systemie elektroenergetycznym. Podobna sytuacja dotyczy również innych krajów europejskich, jednak znaczne ryzyko ograniczeń dostaw występuje obecnie tylko w Polsce.

W ten oto sposób dochodzimy do Projektu Rozwiązań Funkcjonalnych Rynku Mocy opracowanego przez Ministerstwo Energii przy współudziale ekspertów z PSE S.A.

„Celem Ministra Energii jest zapewnienie ciągłości i stabilności dostaw energii elektrycznej do wszystkich odbiorców końcowych na terenie kraju w horyzoncie długoterminowym” – możemy przeczytać we wspomnianym dokumencie.

Projekt w dużej mierze bazuje na założeniach rynku mocy w Wielkiej Brytanii.

Minister Energii proponuje system zcentralizowany, w którym jeden podmiot ma obowiązek określenia wielkości zapotrzebowania na moc i zorganizowania zakupu mocy w trybie aukcji holenderskiej, gdzie cena wywoławcza stopniowo jest obniżana i wygrywa ten, kto zaoferuje najniższą stawkę.

Harmonogram procesów rynku mocy:

Źródło: Ministerstwo Energii, Projekt rozwiązań funkcjonalnych rynku mocy, wersja 1.0, Warszawa, 4.07.2016, http://www.mg.gov.pl/node/26170.

 

Przykład Wielkiej Brytanii pokazuje nam jednak, że wprowadzenie takiego rozwiązania nie gwarantuje inwestycji w nowe bloki. Jak możemy przeczytać na blogu Profesora Świrskiego tylko 5% środków zostanie zainwestowanych w nowe bloki gazowe a zdecydowana większość będzie stanowiła wsparcie dla starych bloków węglowych, aby nadal były utrzymywane w ruchu.

Jedną z zasadniczych wad projektu ME w moim odczuciu jest bazowanie wyłącznie na krajowym systemie z pominięciem możliwości związanych z połączeniami transgranicznymi.

Ponadto marginalnie potraktowano jednostki zapewniające DSR (Demand Side Response), czyli potencjał odpowiedzi popytu.

Podzielam również opinię niektórych komentatorów, którzy uważają, że założenia projektu ME mogą być niezgodne z unijnym prawem. Rynek mocy w zaproponowanej formie może być uznany za niedozwoloną pomoc publiczną państwa.

I wreszcie ostatnia i dla wszystkich z pewnością najważniejsza kwestia dotycząca kosztów wprowadzenie rynku mocy. W analizie prawnej i ekonomicznej przygotowanej przez organizację Client Earth Prawnicy dla Ziemi czytamy, że rynek mocy w obecnej propozycji oznaczałby nałożenie na odbiorców końcowych kosztów rzędu 80-90 mld zł w latach 2021-2030. Według Client Earth przeciętny rachunek za energię wzrośnie o około 20%.

Niestety projekt ME pokazuje jedynie mechanizmy rozliczeń bez podawania jakichkolwiek symulacji kosztowych. Dlatego też trudno się do tego odnieść.

Konkludując wygląda na to, że ME zamierza rozwiązać problemy polskiej energetyki powielając błędy innych państw unijnych.

Samo wprowadzenie podobnych rozwiązań w innych krajach unijnych nie jest dla mnie wystarczającą argumentacją.

W 2014 roku Benedict De Meulemeester – założyciel i właściciel E&C – opublikował artykuł nt. rynku mocy: Opłaty za moc: drogie rozwiązanie dla nieistniejącego problemu (tytuł oryginału: Capacity payments: expensive solution for a non-existing problem).

W końcowej części tego artykułu możemy przeczytać 4 punktową receptę rozwiązania problemów związanych z opłatami mocowymi osiągając wydajniejszy kosztowo i bardziej transparentny sposób zmniejszania niedoborów mocy przy jednoczesnym unikaniu podnoszenia cen energii dla odbiorców końcowych:

1. Kontynuacja polityki klimatycznej w celu zmniejszenia zużycia energii.
2. Rozwój transgranicznego handlu energią i wspieranie takich inicjatyw jak market coupling.
3. Kontynuacja wsparcia dla OZE, zwłaszcza w obecnej sytuacji, gdy spadły koszty inwestycyjne (…)
4. Wspieranie zarządzania popytem tam, gdzie jest to realne.

 

Czytając Projekt rozwiązań funkcjonalnych rynku mocy Ministerstwa Energii jak również analizując nowe akty prawne dotyczące rynku energii w Polsce (np. Ustawa o budowie farm wiatrowych) mam nieodparte wrażenie, że działania Ministra Tchórzewskiego skupione są wyłącznie na wsparciu polskiego sektora wydobycia węgla.

Parafrazując słowa ministra, który przed podpisaniem „ustawy wiatrakowej” przez prezydenta stwierdził, iż „trzeba mniej tej demagogii odnawialnej” chciałoby się powiedzieć: mniej tej demagogii węglowej i biurokratycznej…